Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6375 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 6375 MRY 06:00 → PHX 07:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 6268 MRY 16:14 → PHX 18:14 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6375 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 06:00	PHX 07:57	7%	5%	1.9%	97%
AA 3720 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MRY 12:35	PHX 14:31	19%	5%	2.1%	84%
AA 2884 American Flight history →	MRY 19:09	PHX 21:04	23%	8%	1.5%	85%
AA 6268 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 16:14	PHX 18:14	24%	11%	1.2%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON