tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AS 3384 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3384 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 06:00 SAN 07:34 12% 7% 7.4% 91%
AS 3221 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 15:05 SAN 16:39 28% 8% 3.5% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MRY 05:00 → DEN 08:32UA 2754 2h 43m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Los Angeles LAX 18:50 → SAN 19:51UA 5415 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → MRY 06:00 → PHX 07:57AA 6375 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m Phoenix PHX 10:30 → SAN 11:47AA 2477 5h 47m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → MRY 15:30 → SFO 16:28UA 4729 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → SAN 20:53UA 1343 5h 23m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → MRY 12:00 → SFO 12:56UA 5557 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 16:43 → SAN 18:35UA 1561 6h 35m 97% 67%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 6h 08m 97% 66%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:35 → PHX 14:31AA 3720 · flown by Envoy 2h 35m Phoenix PHX 17:06 → SAN 18:18AA 2466 5h 43m 100% 63%
AmericanDetails → MRY 16:14 → PHX 18:14AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Phoenix PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559 5h 20m 97% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → SAN 11:51UA 2177 3h 51m 62% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON