tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2128 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record MRY 18:19 SEA 20:35 17% 4% 0.0% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MRY 07:05 → LAX 08:30UA 2655 3h 13m Los Angeles LAX 11:43 → SEA 14:36UA 325 7h 31m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MRY 05:00 → DEN 08:32UA 2754 2h 49m Denver DEN 11:21 → SEA 13:21UA 1424 8h 21m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:35 → PHX 14:31AA 3720 · flown by Envoy 3h 24m Phoenix PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 8h 30m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m Los Angeles LAX 19:06 → SEA 21:59UA 684 8h 05m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → MRY 12:00 → SFO 12:56UA 5557 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m San Francisco SFO 16:38 → SEA 19:03UA 2279 7h 03m 97% 66%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m San Francisco SFO 12:10 → SEA 14:30UA 2744 6h 30m 97% 64%
UnitedDetails → MRY 15:30 → SFO 16:28UA 4729 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SEA 20:53UA 1577 5h 23m 95% 63%
AlaskaDetails → MRY 06:00 → SAN 07:34AS 3384 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m San Diego SAN 10:09 → SEA 13:13AS 1477 7h 13m 99% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MRY 12:00 → SFO 12:56UA 5557 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 14:00 → SEA 16:20UA 1265 4h 20m 67% 44%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m San Francisco SFO 10:15 → SEA 12:34UA 2192 4h 34m 66% 41%
AlaskaDetails → MRY 15:05 → SAN 16:39AS 3221 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Diego SAN 17:35 → SEA 20:35AS 417 5h 30m 69% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON