Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 32–41% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4729 MRY 15:30 → SFO 16:28 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest UA 5502 MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4729 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 15:30	SFO 16:28	32%	20%	1.0%	62%
UA 5557 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 12:00	SFO 12:56	38%	24%	0.9%	41%
UA 5502 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 08:00	SFO 08:56	41%	23%	1.2%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON