Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4687 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4687 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 07:20	BOS 10:53	6%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 5603 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 15:46	BOS 19:20	18%	8%	0.8%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSN 05:00 → ORD 06:15AA 3702 · flown by Envoy	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 08:30 → BOS 12:07AA 4106 · flown by Envoy	6h 07m	100%	88%
United Details →	MSN 06:41 → ORD 07:54UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 09:15 → BOS 12:57UA 1117	5h 16m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	5h 57m	97%	87%
United Details →	MSN 05:00 → ORD 06:17UA 4707 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 07:33 → BOS 11:05UA 1076	5h 05m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	MSN 06:00 → MSP 07:08DL 1274	2h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	6h 51m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSN 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 5545 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Denver	DEN 07:45 → BOS 13:49UA 558	7h 49m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	MSN 07:00 → LGA 10:17DL 5847 · flown by Republic	3h 43m New York	LGA 14:00 → BOS 15:29DL 5739 · flown by Republic	7h 29m	100%	83%
American Details →	MSN 06:00 → DCA 09:19AA 5503 · flown by PSA	3h 40m Washington	DCA 12:59 → BOS 14:44AA 4380 · flown by Republic	7h 44m	96%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSN 18:32 → DTW 20:58DL 5214 · flown by Endeavor	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 21:59 → BOS 23:59DL 1187	4h 27m	75%	58%
Delta Details →	MSN 15:10 → LGA 18:29DL 5033 · flown by Endeavor	1h 31m New York	LGA 20:00 → BOS 21:39DL 5850 · flown by Republic	5h 29m	73%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON