Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5503 MSN 06:00 → DCA 09:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 5599 MSN 15:51 → DCA 19:10 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5503 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSN 06:00	DCA 09:19	8%	4%	2.2%	87%
AA 4523 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 12:43	DCA 15:59	10%	3%	0.9%	75%
DL 5645 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 17:20	DCA 20:24	14%	5%	0.8%	73%
AA 5599 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSN 15:51	DCA 19:10	17%	8%	2.5%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON