Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5545 MSN 05:00 → DEN 06:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 2338 MSN 15:18 → DEN 16:45 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5545 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 05:00	DEN 06:42	7%	3%	0.6%	96%
UA 2360 United Flight history →	MSN 08:50	DEN 10:20	9%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 5380 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 17:49	DEN 19:40	15%	5%	0.6%	69%
UA 2338 United Flight history →	MSN 15:18	DEN 16:45	16%	5%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON