Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2007 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2007 MSN 06:50 → DFW 09:22 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2141 MSN 17:11 → DFW 19:46 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2007 American Flight history →	MSN 06:50	DFW 09:22	10%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 2142 American Flight history →	MSN 11:23	DFW 13:45	18%	6%	0.7%	69%
AA 2141 American Flight history →	MSN 17:11	DFW 19:46	22%	9%	0.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON