Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3482 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 06:29	EWR 09:50	4%	3%	1.5%	92%
UA 3675 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 10:45	EWR 14:05	9%	4%	1.5%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 07:00 → DTW 09:22DL 3665 · flown by SkyWest	53m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	3h 56m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MSN 06:00 → MSP 07:08DL 1274	2h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 09:14 → EWR 12:56DL 2895	5h 56m	98%	88%
United Details →	MSN 05:00 → ORD 06:17UA 4707 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → EWR 12:06UA 2301	6h 06m	97%	86%
United Details →	MSN 06:41 → ORD 07:54UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	6h 36m	100%	86%
United Details →	MSN 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 5545 · flown by SkyWest	58m Denver	DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640	7h 27m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 33m	97%	85%
United Details →	MSN 08:10 → ORD 09:20UA 2151	2h 51m Chicago	ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606	6h 29m	100%	84%
United Details →	MSN 15:46 → ORD 17:01UA 5262 · flown by SkyWest	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	6h 53m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSN 06:41 → ORD 07:54UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	46m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → EWR 12:06UA 2301	4h 25m	71%	63%
United Details →	MSN 17:45 → ORD 19:00UA 4603 · flown by GoJet	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	4h 54m	69%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON