Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1274 MSN 06:00 → MSP 07:08 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 4032 MSN 14:45 → MSP 16:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1274 Delta Flight history →	MSN 06:00	MSP 07:08	4%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 4103 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 08:52	MSP 10:10	7%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 4102 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:03	MSP 13:33	8%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 4032 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 14:45	MSP 16:01	9%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 5480 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSN 18:13	MSP 19:30	35%	11%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON