Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 4707 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 4707 MSN 05:00 → ORD 06:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 5262 MSN 15:46 → ORD 17:01 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 4707 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 05:00	ORD 06:17	6%	4%	1.4%	93%
AA 3702 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 05:00	ORD 06:15	6%	4%	1.7%	100%
AA 4018 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 09:18	ORD 10:30	9%	4%	1.6%	93%
UA 5902 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 06:41	ORD 07:54	10%	5%	1.5%	89%
UA 1660 United Flight history →	MSN 10:43	ORD 11:56	11%	4%	1.2%	91%
UA 2151 United Flight history →	MSN 08:10	ORD 09:20	11%	3%	1.0%	84%
AA 3437 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 13:02	ORD 14:14	14%	4%	1.7%	82%
AA 3716 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 14:55	ORD 16:07	16%	5%	1.7%	81%
AA 3717 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 18:43	ORD 20:13	17%	6%	1.6%	79%
UA 5447 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:30	ORD 13:42	19%	7%	1.6%	71%
UA 5262 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 15:46	ORD 17:01	22%	9%	1.5%	48%
UA 4603 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	MSN 17:45	ORD 19:00	41%	18%	5.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON