tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 634 American Flight history → MSN 08:00 PHX 09:32 16% 6% 0.7% 86%
AA 888 American Flight history → MSN 14:42 PHX 16:08 25% 7% 0.7% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSN 06:00 → MSP 07:08DL 1274 2h 20m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 6h 43m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSN 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 5545 · flown by SkyWest 1h 18m Denver DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:00UA 1481 6h 00m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 5h 54m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSN 07:00 → DTW 09:22DL 3665 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 8h 50m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 15m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → MSN 05:00 → ORD 06:15AA 3702 · flown by Envoy 1h 10m Chicago ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769 6h 09m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSN 05:00 → ORD 06:17UA 4707 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Chicago ORD 09:02 → PHX 11:03UA 2225 8h 03m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:29 → EWR 09:50UA 3482 · flown by Republic 1h 34m Newark EWR 11:24 → PHX 13:39UA 370 9h 10m 96% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON