Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3924 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSO 06:45	DFW 11:09	10%	6%	0.7%	90%
AA 2144 American Flight history →	MSO 14:09	DFW 18:39	22%	8%	0.7%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	1h 29m Denver	DEN 09:40 → DFW 12:48UA 355	5h 43m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MSO 05:35 → SLC 07:06DL 2795	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	6h 55m	97%	84%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Denver	DEN 15:42 → DFW 18:48UA 414	7h 12m	100%	81%
United Details →	MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436	2h 23m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	6h 34m	93%	74%
United Details →	MSO 17:20 → DEN 19:40UA 5632 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m Denver	DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239	5h 39m	89%	74%
United Details →	MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	9h 02m	91%	73%
Delta Details →	MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	7h 08m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	MSO 07:00 → SEA 07:32AS 2153 · flown by Horizon	3h 27m Seattle	SEA 10:59 → DFW 17:00AS 341	9h 00m	100%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m San Francisco	SFO 18:50 → DFW 00:37 +1UA 2478	7h 18m	73%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON