tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4741 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSO 07:15 LAX 09:17 16% 7% 0.6% 87%
AA 6270 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSO 16:44 LAX 18:40 18% 8% 0.6% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907 2h 02m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 8h 28m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 1h 51m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 29m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:35 → SLC 07:06DL 2795 2h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → LAX 10:34DL 1095 5h 59m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 7h 39m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 07:00 → SEA 07:32AS 2153 · flown by Horizon 2h 31m Seattle SEA 10:03 → LAX 12:56AS 1367 6h 56m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 17:41 → PDX 18:16AS 3098 · flown by SkyWest 3h 11m Portland PDX 21:27 → LAX 23:56AS 1389 7h 15m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSO 17:20 → DEN 19:40UA 5632 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Denver DEN 21:20 → LAX 22:55UA 531 6h 35m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSO 18:27 → SLC 20:09DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197 6h 15m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 53m San Francisco SFO 18:43 → LAX 20:27UA 1427 5h 08m 66% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON