tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2907 Delta Flight history → MSO 05:55 MSP 09:28 8% 5% 0.6% 92%
DL 362 Delta Flight history → MSO 15:28 MSP 19:05 11% 5% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:35 → MSP 12:34UA 397 5h 29m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:35 → SLC 07:06DL 2795 54m Salt Lake City SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 4h 54m 91% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Denver DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470 7h 10m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSO 18:27 → SLC 20:09DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 56m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → MSP 00:34 +1DL 1173 5h 07m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 2h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935 6h 39m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436 2h 15m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076 6h 25m 93% 77%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 07:00 → SEA 07:32AS 2153 · flown by Horizon 1h 03m Seattle SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555 5h 57m 92% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSO 17:20 → DEN 19:40UA 5632 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 5h 39m 89% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 54m Denver DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732 5h 10m 71% 60%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 17:00 → SEA 17:41AS 697 59m Seattle SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:59AS 386 5h 59m 69% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON