Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3098 at 17:41, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 3098 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSO 17:41	PDX 18:16	15%	8%	0.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	6h 03m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSO 18:27 → SLC 20:09DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	6h 17m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	MSO 07:00 → SEA 07:32AS 2153 · flown by Horizon	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 08:45 → PDX 09:49AS 3132 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	MSO 17:00 → SEA 17:41AS 697	2h 44m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	5h 22m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	MSO 19:59 → SEA 20:33AS 2138 · flown by Horizon	2h 53m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	5h 23m	98%	80%
United Details →	MSO 17:20 → DEN 19:40UA 5632 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Denver	DEN 21:30 → PDX 23:13UA 1770	6h 53m	94%	78%
Alaska Details →	MSO 11:22 → SEA 12:02AS 3100 · flown by SkyWest	1h 43m Seattle	SEA 13:45 → PDX 14:48AS 3204 · flown by SkyWest	4h 26m	98%	78%
American Details →	MSO 16:44 → LAX 18:40AA 6270 · flown by SkyWest	1h 30m Los Angeles	LAX 20:10 → PDX 22:39AA 6424 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	89%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:54UA 2262	5h 35m	75%	59%
Alaska Details →	MSO 19:59 → SEA 20:33AS 2138 · flown by Horizon	55m Seattle	SEA 21:28 → PDX 22:25AS 498	3h 26m	30%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON