tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 8h 29m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSO 15:28 → MSP 19:05DL 362 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 9h 02m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 3h 04m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 36m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → MSO 18:27 → SLC 20:09DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:49DL 1202 6h 22m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 7h 44m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 5h 51m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636 3h 00m Chicago ORD 20:05 → SAN 22:34UA 1531 11h 00m 91% 71%
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → SAN 22:49UA 1863 7h 30m 100% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON