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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5417 at 16:19, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5417 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSO 16:19 SFO 17:50 27% 15% 0.9% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907 1h 32m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 14m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 7h 54m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 3h 10m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 7h 59m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → MSO 16:44 → LAX 18:40AA 6270 · flown by SkyWest 3h 52m Los Angeles LAX 22:32 → SFO 23:59AA 6510 · flown by SkyWest 8h 15m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSO 07:15 → LAX 09:17UA 4741 · flown by SkyWest 1h 38m Los Angeles LAX 10:55 → SFO 12:30UA 1791 6h 15m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → MSO 17:20 → DEN 19:40UA 5632 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 6h 36m 93% 72%
DeltaDetails → MSO 18:27 → SLC 20:09DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 6h 25m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:35 → SLC 07:06DL 2795 3h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 7h 28m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSO 14:09 → DFW 18:39AA 2144 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10AA 1430 8h 01m 70% 39%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 17:00 → SEA 17:41AS 697 55m Seattle SEA 18:36 → SFO 20:48AS 619 4h 48m 62% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON