tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 730 at 18:11, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 730 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:11 ABQ 19:55 14% 5% 0.5% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 1h 12m Denver DEN 08:05 → ABQ 09:33UA 5487 · flown by SkyWest 4h 48m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 7h 43m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 05:50 → DEN 06:55WN 1525 55m Denver DEN 07:50 → ABQ 09:15WN 3056 4h 25m 95% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 16m Chicago ORD 09:00 → ABQ 11:23UA 215 6h 23m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 8h 05m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:02 → DFW 08:40AA 2150 3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:56 → ABQ 12:52AA 3374 · flown by Envoy 7h 50m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 34m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 6h 52m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSP 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 3695 · flown by Republic 1h 55m Dulles IAD 17:45 → ABQ 19:59UA 1822 8h 42m 100% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON