Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1541 MSP 07:40 → ANC 10:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 377 MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1541 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 07:40	ANC 10:37	13%	3%	1.0%	96%
DL 555 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:50	ANC 11:34	13%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 411 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:13	ANC 00:59	16%	4%	0.6%	73%
DL 377 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:10	ANC 21:00	21%	4%	0.6%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	47m Denver	DEN 07:40 → ANC 11:10UA 394	8h 25m	88%	77%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	47m Denver	DEN 15:35 → ANC 19:12UA 1592	8h 36m	81%	65%
Alaska Details →	MSP 16:57 → SEA 18:52AS 510	51m Seattle	SEA 19:43 → ANC 22:22AS 663	8h 25m	77%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON