Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2062 MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 2749 MSP 19:45 → AUS 22:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2062 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:10	AUS 12:50	12%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 3950 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 07:00	AUS 09:55	12%	3%	0.5%	78%
WN 342 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 10:55	AUS 13:35	13%	3%	0.6%	72%
DL 1042 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:20	AUS 17:01	19%	4%	0.6%	69%
DL 2749 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:45	AUS 22:25	20%	5%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON