Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2181 at 09:00, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2181 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:00	AVL 12:20	8%	2%	0.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 13m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	7h 00m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 47m Denver	DEN 09:40 → AVL 14:39UA 1464	7h 54m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 52m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	6h 40m	99%	83%
American Details →	MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	3h 13m Chicago	ORD 15:29 → AVL 18:25AA 3406 · flown by Envoy	6h 54m	99%	82%
American Details →	MSP 16:03 → ORD 17:59AA 4727 · flown by Republic	3h 30m Chicago	ORD 21:29 → AVL 00:23 +1AA 3493 · flown by Envoy	7h 20m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → AVL 16:12DL 2037	6h 46m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:58 → ATL 19:41DL 1028	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	6h 48m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531	47m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → AVL 20:50UA 5663 · flown by SkyWest	4h 34m	66%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON