Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2941 at 22:20, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2941 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:20	BIL 23:30	19%	6%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	2h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:25 → BIL 17:52DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	98%	90%
American Details →	MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 10:05 → BIL 12:19AA 3428 · flown by Envoy	7h 09m	98%	88%
Alaska Details →	MSP 16:57 → SEA 18:52AS 510	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 20:59 → BIL 23:51AS 2457 · flown by Horizon	7h 54m	96%	87%
American Details →	MSP 15:11 → DFW 17:50AA 2145	3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:15 → BIL 23:13AA 3937 · flown by Envoy	9h 02m	100%	86%
American Details →	MSP 06:02 → DFW 08:40AA 2150	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:00 → BIL 12:59AA 3429 · flown by Envoy	7h 57m	98%	86%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	1h 02m Denver	DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	97%	86%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 24m Denver	DEN 11:45 → BIL 13:22UA 703	5h 17m	97%	84%
United Details →	MSP 11:34 → DEN 12:45UA 2232	2h 50m Denver	DEN 15:35 → BIL 17:19UA 5498 · flown by SkyWest	6h 45m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON