Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1528 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1528 MSP 07:05 → BNA 09:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 2962 MSP 16:00 → BNA 18:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1528 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 07:05	BNA 09:10	5%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 2724 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	BNA 08:58	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2843 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:50	BNA 14:52	12%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2612 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:29	BNA 17:35	17%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 1144 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:20	BNA 22:26	17%	3%	0.6%	79%
WN 2962 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 16:00	BNA 18:00	23%	5%	0.6%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON