Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 1749 at 15:22, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1749 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:22	BUF 18:24	15%	5%	0.8%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSP 05:00 → MDW 06:30WN 2520	1h 25m Chicago	MDW 07:55 → BUF 10:25WN 758	4h 25m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	MSP 05:25 → BWI 08:50WN 3658	2h 00m Baltimore	BWI 10:50 → BUF 12:05WN 762	5h 40m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	6h 37m	99%	83%
United Details →	MSP 09:47 → ORD 11:29UA 1929	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → BUF 16:41UA 2226	5h 54m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → BUF 11:22DL 3636 · flown by SkyWest	4h 18m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:16 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	3h 51m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978	6h 42m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 18m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → BUF 15:13DL 3642 · flown by SkyWest	5h 13m	98%	81%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 11:06 → BUF 12:51AA 1616	5h 32m	94%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	47m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334	5h 41m	72%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON