Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3658 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3658 MSP 05:25 → BWI 08:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2963 MSP 18:00 → BWI 21:25 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3658 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 05:25	BWI 08:50	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
DL 2357 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	BWI 10:42	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2565 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:41	BWI 18:15	13%	4%	0.6%	63%
DL 2918 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:45	BWI 23:13	17%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 2963 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 18:00	BWI 21:25	26%	7%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON