Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1226 MSP 08:55 → BZN 10:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 2954 MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1226 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:55	BZN 10:24	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2946 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:17	BZN 14:47	9%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2954 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:23	BZN 23:52	12%	4%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON