Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1827 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1827 MSP 06:55 → CLT 10:24 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2151 MSP 17:47 → CLT 21:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1827 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	CLT 10:24	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 894 American Flight history →	MSP 06:19	CLT 10:00	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2819 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:30	CLT 13:57	9%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 2154 American Flight history →	MSP 10:56	CLT 14:36	10%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 2153 American Flight history →	MSP 13:39	CLT 17:23	13%	5%	0.6%	84%
DL 2929 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:14	CLT 23:44	13%	5%	0.6%	78%
DL 2821 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:15	CLT 18:49	14%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 2151 American Flight history →	MSP 17:47	CLT 21:29	19%	6%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON