tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 4089 at 09:07, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4089 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 09:07 COS 10:27 11% 5% 0.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSP 05:50 → DEN 06:55WN 1525 1h 05m Denver DEN 08:00 → COS 08:55WN 3419 4h 05m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 1h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → COS 17:35DL 4449 · flown by SkyWest 6h 06m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 22m Chicago ORD 09:06 → COS 11:09UA 1082 6h 09m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSP 18:23 → DEN 19:45UA 467 3h 24m Denver DEN 23:09 → COS 23:59UA 4745 · flown by SkyWest 6h 36m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 2h 52m Denver DEN 09:45 → COS 10:46UA 5306 · flown by SkyWest 6h 01m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:02 → DFW 08:40AA 2150 3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:43 → COS 12:52AA 6390 · flown by SkyWest 7h 50m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSP 16:51 → DEN 18:17UA 2272 2h 53m Denver DEN 21:10 → COS 22:06UA 4650 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic 2h 10m Chicago ORD 10:15 → COS 12:07AA 4955 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 98% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON