Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 954 MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 703 MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 954 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:14	CVG 10:03	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 3113 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:50	CVG 15:39	11%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1469 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:20	CVG 23:11	15%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 703 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:50	CVG 18:37	16%	3%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON