Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2958 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2958 MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 5416 MSP 17:46 → DCA 21:27 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2958 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:36	DCA 11:00	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 5312 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSP 06:30	DCA 10:11	9%	4%	1.2%	87%
DL 2983 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:25	DCA 13:48	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2961 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:30	DCA 23:56	17%	4%	0.6%	71%
AA 3796 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSP 12:50	DCA 16:27	18%	5%	0.8%	70%
DL 2963 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:37	DCA 18:09	18%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 2962 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:35	DCA 22:02	21%	6%	0.6%	63%
AA 5416 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSP 17:46	DCA 21:27	24%	15%	1.4%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON