Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1525 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1525 MSP 05:50 → DEN 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3063 MSP 19:00 → DEN 20:10 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1525 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 05:50	DEN 06:55	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
UA 2041 United Flight history →	MSP 05:45	DEN 06:53	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
UA 1891 United Flight history →	MSP 09:05	DEN 10:21	7%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 1675 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	DEN 08:06	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2849 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:55	DEN 10:03	10%	2%	0.6%	82%
UA 2232 United Flight history →	MSP 11:34	DEN 12:45	10%	3%	0.5%	94%
UA 1305 United Flight history →	MSP 13:36	DEN 14:48	13%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 2927 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:00	DEN 12:05	13%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 467 United Flight history →	MSP 18:23	DEN 19:45	16%	4%	0.5%	57%
WN 4346 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 11:35	DEN 12:35	16%	2%	0.5%	70%
UA 2272 United Flight history →	MSP 16:51	DEN 18:17	16%	4%	0.5%	65%
DL 1705 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:15	DEN 23:27	16%	4%	0.6%	71%
DL 1025 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:27	DEN 15:30	18%	4%	0.6%	80%
WN 2967 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 13:50	DEN 14:55	20%	3%	0.5%	75%
F9 3199 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 13:16	DEN 14:30	20%	6%	0.8%	87%
F9 1149 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 22:15	DEN 23:32	21%	7%	0.8%	80%
DL 2931 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:45	DEN 19:56	24%	4%	0.6%	66%
WN 3063 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 19:00	DEN 20:10	29%	5%	0.5%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON