Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1251 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1251 MSP 05:00 → DFW 07:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 3223 MSP 17:09 → DFW 19:47 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1251 American Flight history →	MSP 05:00	DFW 07:34	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 2150 American Flight history →	MSP 06:02	DFW 08:40	6%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 2972 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:54	DFW 10:23	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 1395 American Flight history →	MSP 08:01	DFW 10:36	9%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 2970 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:03	DFW 12:29	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 2152 American Flight history →	MSP 10:34	DFW 13:05	11%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 2967 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:50	DFW 22:21	16%	5%	0.6%	76%
DL 2971 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:47	DFW 17:16	17%	4%	0.6%	76%
AA 2145 American Flight history →	MSP 15:11	DFW 17:50	17%	6%	0.7%	60%
AA 2148 American Flight history →	MSP 19:15	DFW 21:50	18%	6%	0.8%	56%
F9 3223 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 17:09	DFW 19:47	24%	9%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON