Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1246 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1246 MSP 06:00 → EWR 09:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2866 MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1246 United Flight history →	MSP 06:00	EWR 09:40	4%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 2864 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	EWR 10:49	7%	2%	0.8%	89%
DL 2895 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:14	EWR 12:56	9%	4%	0.8%	81%
UA 1637 United Flight history →	MSP 10:14	EWR 14:00	11%	6%	0.7%	83%
UA 657 United Flight history →	MSP 19:42	EWR 23:26	17%	8%	0.8%	65%
DL 2846 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:15	EWR 23:56	18%	8%	0.9%	73%
DL 2866 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:10	EWR 17:53	20%	7%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON