tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 1055 at 18:10, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1055 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:10 FAI 20:49 20% 4% 0.8% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → MSP 07:40 → ANC 10:37AS 1541 1h 43m Anchorage ANC 12:20 → FAI 13:24AS 1336 8h 44m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 18:17 → PDX 20:07AS 1434 1h 52m Portland PDX 21:59 → FAI 00:55 +1AS 1521 9h 38m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576 2h 45m Chicago ORD 16:00 → FAI 19:39UA 2223 11h 07m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → MSP 06:55 → SEA 08:45DL 1418 2h 00m Seattle SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42DL 1061 9h 47m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSP 16:51 → DEN 18:17UA 2272 1h 07m Denver DEN 19:24 → FAI 22:59UA 250 9h 08m 87% 69%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387 1h 55m Seattle SEA 09:53 → FAI 12:44AS 1552 9h 41m 99% 67%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555 3h 38m Seattle SEA 20:28 → FAI 23:18AS 1880 11h 22m 99% 64%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 19:59 → SEA 21:57AS 532 1h 30m Seattle SEA 23:27 → FAI 02:15 +1AS 1512 9h 16m 95% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881 53m Seattle SEA 21:41 → FAI 00:30 +1DL 2186 8h 35m 71% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON