Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2575 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:35	FCA 14:32	13%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 1602 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:45	FCA 23:43	17%	4%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kalispell on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kalispell is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:40 → FCA 17:29DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest	6h 00m	96%	85%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	3h 32m Denver	DEN 13:53 → FCA 16:11UA 2246	8h 06m	100%	82%
American Details →	MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → FCA 12:46AA 1833	7h 36m	98%	81%
American Details →	MSP 06:02 → DFW 08:40AA 2150	3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:24 → FCA 14:57AA 1842	9h 55m	99%	79%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	56m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → FCA 11:29UA 2333	6h 29m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	51m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → FCA 12:43DL 3804 · flown by SkyWest	5h 33m	86%	79%
American Details →	MSP 05:00 → DFW 07:34AA 1251	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:10 → FCA 11:43AA 1845	7h 43m	95%	77%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	47m Denver	DEN 07:40 → FCA 10:01UA 5476 · flown by SkyWest	5h 16m	88%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 17:13 → ORD 19:00UA 658	47m Chicago	ORD 19:47 → FCA 22:55UA 6021 · flown by SkyWest	6h 42m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON