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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 673 Delta Flight history → MSP 08:50 FLL 13:25 13% 3% 0.8% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSP 05:00 → MDW 06:30WN 2520 1h 20m Chicago MDW 07:50 → FLL 11:55WN 4409 5h 55m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 05:25 → BWI 08:50WN 3658 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 09:50 → FLL 12:20WN 4785 5h 55m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 03m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 07:05 → BNA 09:10WN 1528 2h 05m Nashville BNA 11:15 → FLL 14:35WN 4847 6h 30m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 2h 54m Denver DEN 09:47 → FLL 15:47UA 2188 9h 02m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 6h 27m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461 3h 43m Detroit DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294 8h 30m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 3h 15m Chicago ORD 10:59 → FLL 15:13UA 279 8h 13m 100% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON