Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 312 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:10	HNL 13:43	12%	2%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307	13h 03m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	56m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 00m	96%	83%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 46m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → HNL 13:32UA 219	12h 32m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 09m	98%	81%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 39m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	11h 08m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	MSP 13:02 → LAX 14:54DL 1651	3h 43m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	13h 20m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	2h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	12h 23m	99%	77%
United Details →	MSP 07:00 → SFO 09:12UA 1808	2h 48m San Francisco	SFO 12:00 → HNL 14:35UA 1260	12h 35m	100%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON