Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3695 MSP 12:17 → IAD 15:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest DL 3783 MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3695 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSP 12:17	IAD 15:50	8%	3%	0.8%	100%
UA 3678 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSP 17:05	IAD 20:43	9%	3%	0.9%	88%
DL 3699 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 07:17	IAD 10:46	9%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 4129 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 19:50	IAD 23:20	12%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 3783 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 14:30	IAD 18:04	14%	4%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON