tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 3541 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 20:10 ICT 22:00 14% 4% 0.5% 78%
DL 3595 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 13:23 ICT 15:09 15% 3% 0.5% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSP 05:00 → MDW 06:30WN 2520 3h 30m Chicago MDW 10:00 → ICT 12:00WN 2104 7h 00m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 3h 02m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 6h 42m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:46 → ICT 12:55DL 1060 7h 35m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 38m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:02 → DFW 08:40AA 2150 3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:28 → ICT 13:52AA 3592 · flown by Envoy 7h 50m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:00 → DFW 07:34AA 1251 1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → ICT 10:55AA 4142 · flown by Envoy 5h 55m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 08m Chicago ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12UA 4809 · flown by SkyWest 5h 12m 97% 82%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387 1h 07m Seattle SEA 09:05 → ICT 14:26AS 2117 · flown by Horizon 8h 23m 95% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSP 18:41 → ORD 20:30UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest 50m Chicago ORD 21:20 → ICT 23:31UA 2762 4h 50m 74% 57%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 19:15 → MDW 20:50WN 4115 50m Chicago MDW 21:40 → ICT 23:40WN 4241 4h 25m 72% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON