Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2456 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2456 MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 674 MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2456 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:50	IND 11:28	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 2910 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:55	IND 15:33	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 1456 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:45	IND 18:22	17%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 674 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:40	IND 00:16	19%	3%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON