tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 3925 at 18:50, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 3925 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 18:50 JAC 20:29 13% 3% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 1h 12m Denver DEN 08:05 → JAC 09:34UA 1413 4h 49m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 6h 12m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:05 → JAC 11:35UA 307 6h 35m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 05m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 34m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 7h 20m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 1h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 15:55 → JAC 17:00DL 417 5h 31m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSP 11:34 → DEN 12:45UA 2232 3h 35m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 7h 19m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic 1h 31m Chicago ORD 09:36 → JAC 12:00AA 3331 6h 50m 97% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON