tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2392 at 12:57, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2392 Delta Flight history → MSP 12:57 JAX 16:54 11% 3% 0.9% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSP 05:00 → MDW 06:30WN 2520 2h 10m Chicago MDW 08:40 → JAX 12:00WN 4499 6h 00m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic 1h 05m Chicago ORD 09:10 → JAX 12:51AA 4740 · flown by Republic 5h 41m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923 5h 40m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 2h 58m Chicago ORD 10:42 → JAX 14:27UA 2427 7h 27m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 3h 12m Denver DEN 10:05 → JAX 15:39UA 1451 8h 54m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 05:25 → BWI 08:50WN 3658 2h 45m Baltimore BWI 11:35 → JAX 13:35WN 970 7h 10m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433 3h 20m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 7h 27m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → EWR 09:40UA 1246 3h 21m Newark EWR 13:01 → JAX 15:42UA 2678 8h 42m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON