Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2119 at 11:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2119 MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2103 MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2119 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:30	LAX 13:23	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2110 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:06	LAX 09:00	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 1651 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:02	LAX 14:54	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2102 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:20	LAX 11:10	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 2114 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:45	LAX 17:35	14%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2122 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:59	LAX 20:51	20%	4%	0.6%	74%
DL 2103 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:59	LAX 23:53	20%	4%	0.6%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MSP 05:50 → DEN 06:55WN 1525	55m Denver	DEN 07:50 → LAX 09:20WN 1568	5h 30m	95%	82%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	55m Denver	DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195	5h 39m	87%	72%
Delta Details →	MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161	5h 42m	85%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON