Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2719 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 2719 MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2732 MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2719 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:05	LGA 10:44	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2764 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	LGA 13:45	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 2756 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:00	LGA 16:49	16%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 2733 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:58	LGA 23:40	19%	6%	0.7%	77%
DL 2732 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:30	LGA 19:18	21%	6%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON