Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1608 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1608 MSP 10:20 → MCI 11:46 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 1657 MSP 21:30 → MCI 22:58 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1608 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:20	MCI 11:46	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 1613 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:45	MCI 15:14	13%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1630 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:20	MCI 16:48	18%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 1657 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:30	MCI 22:58	23%	5%	0.6%	76%
DL 4867 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 06:55	MCI 08:33	16%	4%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON