Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2520 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2520 MSP 05:00 → MDW 06:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2971 MSP 16:15 → MDW 17:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2520 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 05:00	MDW 06:30	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 4345 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 10:25	MDW 11:55	9%	2%	0.6%	81%
WN 3743 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 12:20	MDW 13:45	15%	3%	0.6%	59%
WN 4115 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 19:15	MDW 20:50	19%	6%	0.6%	68%
WN 2971 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 16:15	MDW 17:45	19%	5%	0.6%	38%
DL 4712 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 06:55	MDW 08:37	16%	9%	0.0%	84%
DL 4820 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 11:30	MDW 13:09	38%	15%	3.6%	62%
DL 4714 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 16:38	MDW 18:18	41%	23%	0.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON