Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1870 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 1870 MSP 06:00 → MIA 10:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2187 MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1870 American Flight history →	MSP 06:00	MIA 10:50	8%	3%	1.3%	94%
DL 2129 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:55	MIA 13:37	12%	4%	1.5%	87%
DL 2187 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:53	MIA 23:35	21%	8%	1.0%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	58m Atlanta	ATL 12:52 → MIA 14:55DL 1579	5h 29m	92%	68%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	46m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	5h 23m	81%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON