Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 561 MSP 10:05 → MKE 11:17 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 4462 MSP 16:58 → MKE 18:16 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 561 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	MKE 11:17	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 4466 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 07:41	MKE 08:58	9%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 2006 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:54	MKE 15:09	11%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 4464 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 18:10	MKE 19:31	13%	6%	0.6%	83%
DL 4468 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 20:20	MKE 21:41	13%	6%	0.6%	82%
DL 4462 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 16:58	MKE 18:16	16%	6%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON