Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 362 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:45	MSO 14:38	14%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 2610 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:52	MSO 23:44	22%	7%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	1h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	97%	88%
American Details →	MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 09:41 → MSO 12:33AA 3718 · flown by Envoy	7h 23m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 25m	91%	85%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	56m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → MSO 11:32UA 1180	6h 32m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	2h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → MSO 00:28 +1DL 1723	7h 15m	99%	83%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	3h 39m Denver	DEN 14:00 → MSO 16:20UA 4783 · flown by SkyWest	8h 15m	100%	82%
American Details →	MSP 06:02 → DFW 08:40AA 2150	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:54 → MSO 13:17AA 2144	8h 15m	97%	80%
American Details →	MSP 15:11 → DFW 17:50AA 2145	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:06 → MSO 22:40AA 4063 · flown by Envoy	8h 29m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON